Hold on to your wallets, folks.
The stock market has been on a winning streak and Wall Street is starting to feel its oats once again. Yes, you guessed it, those same people who brought us the biggest mess since the Depression because they convinced us that markets could defy gravity are again banging the drum with the message that the seeds of a recovery are starting to bloom.
Really?
At this point the level of skepticism about anything Wall Street says should be so high that any positive remark sets off Geiger-counter-like beeping. Wall Streeters made tons of money after all by getting the maximum number of suckers to buy into the deals and bargains and can’t-lose situations they created, many times out of bubble soap.
They’re paid to highlight the seams of gold among the dross, no matter how much dross there is. Need I tell you that dross is everywhere and any gold to be found is fool’s gold?
And when things go bust, well, that’s equities for you. Seems there really was some risk involved after all.
As for the recovery, I know it doesn’t serve their purpose, but I suggest anyway that these financial wizards leave their towers and see what’s happening on the ground. Down here, the recovery isn’t around the corner. It hasn’t even gotten into town.
Agents and insurance companies know it; retailers know it; newspapers and magazines know it; manufacturers of goods and services of every stripe know it. Things are terrible. And if they’re not getting worse, they’re hardly getting better. People all over are scared for their jobs and until that fear is allayed and the job market starts to come back, nothing much is going to change. Here on the ground.
There’s a good reason for the old adage “once bitten, twice shy.” The collective ouch that our finances have experienced as a result of getting bitten should give us pause about getting close to this particular dog again. Even if the dog is wagging its tail.
Caveat emptor.
Tags: the economy, Wall Street
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Steve -
Certainly can’t, on an emotional level, disagree with you there. When I hear the great Wizards of Wall Street singing the praises of a soon-to-be-healed economy, I can’t help but think of the countless mortgage brokers who screwed old ladies into adjustable rate balloon notes, all the while convincing them that they were getting 30 yr fixed notes… only to then, once their companies went (because God is just) out of business, turned right back around and called every old lady BACK up as a representative of their new “firm” to offer them “salvation” through a loan modification. On a personal level, I just can’t help but feel that if you gave me a long walk off a short pier, I’ll have a bit of hesitation before joining you for your next seaside stroll.
That said, I’m cursed with a consistent game of devil’s advocate going in the back of my mind. The greatest challenge that faces wallstreet at this point seems to be investor confidence. Granted, that’s like a serial killer complaining that he could clean up his act if someone could just trust him to crash on their couch, but… regardless, it appears to be the greatest concern left out there. Aside from another good chunk of mortgages that should self-destruct over the next five years or so, we’re pretty well sitting in the smoking rubble now. The bombs have all pretty well blown. And in the end, if investor confidence came back (whether by an act of God or an act of foolishness), the market IS in an ok spot to recover. And the moment investors start making gains again, they start spending money. In retail. Which requires the manufacture of goods. Which creates jobs. One COULD argue that fear is the only thorn in the economy’s side at this point… and it’s fueled by, as coincidence would have it, an OVERLOAD of media, and let’s face it… bad news sells. Negativity is worth it’s weight in gold. For as much as I despise it, I can’t even point a finger on that one. They’re a business, the same as anyone else, and frankly, even I, concious of it all though I may be, still change the station if the news anchor kicks off a story on a bunch of puppies that were saved from certain death or how healthy last year’s local quintuplets are. But the moment they’re discussing the latest axe swung in corporate America and how many millions the man responsible for crashing the company made by getting canned… you better believe I’m turning up the volume.
It’s sad… but true. I’ve all but ceased to watch television for that very reason.
Maybe it’s a lie… maybe the market ISN’T in recovery. But in the end… what other choice do we have? There’s only two guarantees at this point… either the market WILL recover, in which case get in while the whole planet is on 60% off clearance… or it WON’T recover, in which case I recommend a telecourse in how to speak Mandarin Chinese, as America will virtually cease to be in a few years… and frankly, at that point, you’ll forgive me if the focus of my woes in life is not exactly my retirement account.
That’s my two cents… though several months ago it’s market value became .3 cents.
Sincerely,
D.